MadSci Network: Astronomy
Query:

Re: what is the name of the meteorite that will collide with earth in 2013?

Date: Thu Jun 24 17:33:25 1999
Posted By: Lew Gramer, MIT S.B. Math (Theoretical)
Area of science: Astronomy
ID: 930165615.As
Message:

Hello, Emiliano! Actually, there will be THOUSANDS of meteorites (particles from space which get through our atmosphere and manage to strike the earth) which will impact Earth during the year 2013, but probably NONE of them will be worthy of a special name! :") In fact, most of them will be so small that you might not even spot them if they fell into a gravel pit!

You may be thinking of one of several recent reports about asteroids ("minor planets" which orbit our sun) that have been projected at one time or another to have a TINY probability of striking the Earth...

These so-called "Potentially Hazardous Asteroids" or PHAs (also called "Near-Earth Objects" or NEOs) will continue to be found as we explore our solar system more deeply, using space probes and big telescopes.

There are two recent PHA "hazard" reports which I've heard of - only one of which actually still has any chance of striking us in the foreseeable future - and that chance is on the order of one-in-ten-million!

The first PHA "hazard" report - which made many news- papers worldwide, and was later determined to NOT be a serious threat - was about a tiny asteroid named "1997 XF11". The story of how XF11 was a threat and then suddenly WASN'T any more is long and boring! But suffice it to say that science always keeps refining its knowledge about the world - that's the whole idea!

[Moderator note: The moderator disagrees with the notion that the story was long and boring. :) More details about the discovery of 1997 XF11 are at http://www.astro.virginia.edu/class/oconnell/astr121/97XF11-summ-319.html.]

The other PHA "hazard" more recently reported was for an object called "1999 AN10". You can find out much, much more about both of these objects by doing a Web search, and in particular by looking at this site:
http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/~marsd en/SGF

Clear skies, Emiliano, with few falling rocks! :)
Lew Gramer


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