MadSci Network: Earth Sciences |
Stephen, The best theory on this particularly nightmareish topic gives rather unsettling results. Initially, there will be a brief (1-2 day) increase in temperatures. As the soot, smoke, dirt and other particulates make their way to the upper stratosphere, a rapid cooling will take place. Average surface temperatures would likely plumet to about -30F as 85-95% of all sunlight is reflected by the dust clouds. Assuming an exchange between the US and Russia that is primarily limited to the Northern Hemisphere, it will take several days to weeks for the clouds of dust to spread to the South. The total duration of this "winter" period would be highly variable depending on weather conditions at the onset and the total number of megatons detonated. Expect about a year though. Additional problems will occur such as rapid desertification of most of the Northern Hemisphere and near total depletion of food growing capability world wide. Should there be a great number of nuclear detonations over or under water, several billion kilograms of excess water vapor would be injected into the upper stratosphere. This would have a number of bad side effects including additional light reflection and additional cooling at the onset. Later, much of the water will precipitate and help wash out the sky, enough excess water vapor will remain aloft to cause secondary global warming after the dust settles. Another rather drastic problem would be the near total depletion of the ozone layer from the free radicals in the dust clouds generated from all the fires on the surface. Anything on land could expect to get rather crispy in this "nuclear summer" phase. A number of references for excellent articles by Dr. Robock can be found at this website: http://metosrv2.umd.edu/~alan/robock_nwpapers.html Good luck with your paper! Scott Kniffin Unisys Corp. at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
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