Re: Could a comets impact point on Earth be determined months in advance

Dear Neil,

We have a hard time predicting exactly where artificial satellites will land when we deorbit them, knowing their exact mass, composition and tracking them continuously! Because the atmosphere of the earth is in a constant state of flux and the exact size, shape, density and composition of your hypothetical comet would be only estimated, we would be uncertain of the exact impact point or points until the event occurred.

As with Comet Shoemaker-Levy which impacted Jupiter in 1994, we predict the event with varying degrees of probability. See this report from 1993 detailing efforts to predict that comet's course: http://spacelink.msfc.nasa.gov/Instructi onal.Materials/Curriculum.Support/Space.Science/Stars.Galaxies.and.Amazing.Pheno mena/Comet.Shoemaker-Levy9/News.Releases/Comet.Rushes.Toward.Jupiter

Let's hope nothing that big comes our way: It wouldn't matter where you were on earth when the dust flung into the atmosphere blocked the sunlight for several years. We'd be the dinosaurs!
Jim Foerch
James C. Veen Observatory