MadSci Network: Environment
Query:

Re: Question too long to type here.... check comments

Date: Tue Nov 9 01:47:11 2004
Posted By: Peter Thejll, Staff, Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Danish Meteorological Institute
Area of science: Environment
ID: 1099877952.En
Message:

Well, I am sorry to say it, but I have not seen the movie yet - it looked
like good fun, though.

I take it that in the film sudden climate changes arrive, almost from day
to day - right? Tidal waves, and sudden cold spells?

The consequences of global warming may indeed be that it first gets warmer
almost everywhere, in which case ice and snow and permafrost will thaw out.
If the ice melts then the ground may get darker and this may cause more
sunlight to be absorbed and thus things will get even warmer. However, if
the melting ice causes more humidity to go into the atmopshere then perhaps
more clouds will be formed and as these are white they will reflect more
sunlight instead.

Whether one or the other thing will happen is not known with accuracy. The
best models of the climate may not be very good, in fact, but the best
models do tell us that probably some of the ice will melt and that probably
weather patterns will change around the world. The Sahara desert may get
larger, but the added moisture in the air migh tcause coastal regions to
get greener. Europe may get warmer, and so on.

The fear that it will suddenly get colder has to do with the possible
shutdown of the Gulf Stream due to changes in the amount of fresh water
flowing into the oceans from melting ice caps and snow in Greenland and
Canada. Some studies of observed data have suggested that this could
happen, and happen quickly - that is, in a short time compared to a human
life. Other studies, and modelling, has suggested that it depends on other
factors too.

Studies of the icecap on Greenland suggest that sudden changes in the
Arctic temperatures can happen in less than 100 years. Both cooling and
warming up, that is.

Larger tidal waves are indeed known to occur, but there is no evidence that
it has ever happened due to a melting ice cap. To create a tidal wave a
huge volume of water, or sliding rock, has to suddenly be added to the
oceans. Melting all the ice in the Arctic and the Antarctic would take
thousands of years of very above-zero weather, and the mean temeprature in
the polar areas is still so far below zero that a thaw is almost ruled out.

While some of the things ahppening in the movie may be realistic in terms
of 'what can happen', I do not believe the film is realistic in terms of
how fast it could happen.

I hope this has not lowered your enjoyment of the film!



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