MadSci Network: Environment |
Well, I am sorry to say it, but I have not seen the movie yet - it looked like good fun, though. I take it that in the film sudden climate changes arrive, almost from day to day - right? Tidal waves, and sudden cold spells? The consequences of global warming may indeed be that it first gets warmer almost everywhere, in which case ice and snow and permafrost will thaw out. If the ice melts then the ground may get darker and this may cause more sunlight to be absorbed and thus things will get even warmer. However, if the melting ice causes more humidity to go into the atmopshere then perhaps more clouds will be formed and as these are white they will reflect more sunlight instead. Whether one or the other thing will happen is not known with accuracy. The best models of the climate may not be very good, in fact, but the best models do tell us that probably some of the ice will melt and that probably weather patterns will change around the world. The Sahara desert may get larger, but the added moisture in the air migh tcause coastal regions to get greener. Europe may get warmer, and so on. The fear that it will suddenly get colder has to do with the possible shutdown of the Gulf Stream due to changes in the amount of fresh water flowing into the oceans from melting ice caps and snow in Greenland and Canada. Some studies of observed data have suggested that this could happen, and happen quickly - that is, in a short time compared to a human life. Other studies, and modelling, has suggested that it depends on other factors too. Studies of the icecap on Greenland suggest that sudden changes in the Arctic temperatures can happen in less than 100 years. Both cooling and warming up, that is. Larger tidal waves are indeed known to occur, but there is no evidence that it has ever happened due to a melting ice cap. To create a tidal wave a huge volume of water, or sliding rock, has to suddenly be added to the oceans. Melting all the ice in the Arctic and the Antarctic would take thousands of years of very above-zero weather, and the mean temeprature in the polar areas is still so far below zero that a thaw is almost ruled out. While some of the things ahppening in the movie may be realistic in terms of 'what can happen', I do not believe the film is realistic in terms of how fast it could happen. I hope this has not lowered your enjoyment of the film!
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