MadSci Network: Environment |
Hi Lisa, If global warming is caused by the natural factors, and by manmade increases in greenhouse gasses, then it will take a very very long time for the glaciers to melt completely because many glaciers are so high up in the mountains that they are so cold that temperatures will have to increase by an amazing amount for the mountain tops to come to the melting point of water - 0 degrees Centigrade. How long? Thousands of years for all of the glaciers to melt - however, long before that we will all die of the boiling heat at the level where most of us live! We will have plenty warning as an increase of just 10 degrees C would be so catastrophic for other reasons that the melting of the glaciers would be our least problem! If you by 'glaciers' also mean the ice on Greenland and in Antarctica then the answer is 'much more than thousands of years' because those places are at 50 degrees below 0 C and warming the world by that much would be almost impossible to achieve by increases in greenhouse gases. We would have to burn so much oil and coal that there is no way we could dig it up fast enough. Do not worry about the 'complete melting of glaciers'! There would be PLENTY of time to move people (if we can afford it and to resettle them - rich countries would have no problems, while poor countries might be in serious trouble. A few rich countries are very flat - The Netherlands, and Denmark, for instance and would have to figure out how to build sea-walls or buy land somewhere else)- NO tidal wave would flood the coastal areas, as in the catastrophe movie that recently came out, showing huge tidal waves washing over New York city. Sea level rise is something that happens a few millimeters per decade, at most. In some places post-glacial rebound actually causes the coastline to receede - such as in Scandinavia where coastlines are rising at the rate of a centimeter per year in some places. Post-glacial rebound is the process of land, that was pressed down by ice-age glaciers, rising back up once the ice is gone. You can look at a map of the world that shows height above sea-level (usually a specific color in a typical school atlas) to see what areas would be affected by a rise in sea-level of a few meters (the likely rise in sea level within your, your childrens and grandchikldrens lifetime). If ALL glaciers melted due to manmade greenhouse gases they would not start reforming until the temperarture was back down again, and that would happen when the gases had been absorbed in the oceans - this would take a few hundred yeras, once emissions stop. Now, the above answers mainly assumed that manmade gasses caused global warming. There are also natural warming and cooling factors - such as the Sun and volcanoes. We cannot predict what the Sun and the volcanoes will do in the future so all answers are under the assumption that nothing really strange will happen with the Sun or the volcanoes in the future. But if we double or triple the amount of greenhouse gas in the air during the next 100 years or so, then the warming from this is likely to be more than from any natural source. You and your classmates may enjoy reading and discussing the book 'State of Fear' by Michael Crichton. It is a thriller about climate change and the politics of climate change. Most of the science in the book is all right - and the bit about the cannibals is really good!
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