MadSci Network: Earth Sciences
Query:

Re: How much oil is there in the pocket under the gulf?

Date: Mon Jun 21 15:52:37 2010
Posted By: Edward Hyer, Post-doc/Fellow, Aerosol Group, Marine Meteorology Division, Naval Research Lab
Area of science: Earth Sciences
ID: 1276749473.Es
Message:

Ryan, There's a map here with the oil spill extent. I tried to find the link to the official data, but the government website doesn't work for me.

The closer the oil is to the shore, the more damage it will do. So the critical question is whether the currents will move the oil out into the open ocean, or whether it will smear along the Florida coastline. If it travels around the tip of Florida, it might just head into the open ocean where it would do relatively little damage, but it also might cause problems on the East Coast or in Cuba.

Estimating just how much oil is out there is a tricky problem. Basically, the problem has 3 pieces:

The first piece is pretty tricky to measure, but with satellites and helicopters it can be done. The second piece is very hard, most of the good information requires a person or a submarine to actually dive into it (yuck!). The last piece, the concentration, makes us even more uncertain. I'm sure you've heard that "oil and water don't mix," but remember 2) the oil gushed out of the Earth hot and fast, and mixed up with seawater as it came out; 2) the sea is always moving, sloshing around, making it slower to separate oil and water.

Unfortunately, what we do know for sure is bad enough: there is a lot of oil out there, and it is doing a lot of damage when it gets near shore. Every new report raises the total amount of oil, and of course it is still leaking. Hopefully the leak will be stopped soon, and the oil that is currently in the Gulf will head out into the open ocean.

Thanks for your questions!

--Edward H.


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