MadSci Network: Earth Sciences
Query:

Re: Will Mount St. Helens erupt in the near future?

Date: Thu Dec 7 14:20:48 2000
Posted By: David Smith, Faculty Geology, Environmental Science
Area of science: Earth Sciences
ID: 975705156.Es
Message:

That depends on what you mean by "erupt" and what you mean by "near 
future," not to mention what you mean by "will."

Eruptions are usually thought of as the big blasts that do lots of damage, 
but they can also include small steam explosions, dome growth, and other 
less spectacular activity.  These less spectacular forms are more common 
than the more spectacular main eruptions.  Mt St Helens is much more likely 
to experience those sorts of activity in the short term than a repeat of 
the 1980 blast.

The "near future" to most people means 5 years or so.  In that time, 
renewed eruptions are possible, but may not be very likely.  To a geologist 
on the other hand, the near future could mean a million years.  Within that 
time, it is virtually certain that St Helens will erupt again.  After all, 
the whole mountain has been built up in about 40,000 years, which is a very 
short time to geologists.  

The word "will" implies a level of certainty that is not really possible in 
science.  We cannot predict the exact behavior of a volcano - they are too 
complex - we can only predict the likelyhood, or probability of an event.  
This prediction is based on past history and current activity.  For a 
detailed look at Mt St Helens' hazards, see the web pages of the Cascades 
Volcano Observatory.  Here's a specific report on Mt St Helens:
 http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/MSH/Hazards/OFR95-497/framework.html

Makes you glad to live on the east coast,
Dave Smith
La Salle University, Philadelphia, PA



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