MadSci Network: Evolution
Query:

Re: Have humans ever had the ability to predict natural disasters?

Date: Mon Jan 2 20:39:47 2006
Posted By: Jim Adelman, Grad student, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University
Area of science: Evolution
ID: 1136161838.Ev
Message:

Kourosh,

Thanks for the cool question. The short answer is that nobody knows for certain if animals really can predict earthquakes. The United States Geological Survey (our government’s research organization for geology, geophysics, etc.) says that there is no convincing evidence that animals can predict earthquakes. Despite numerous stories of strange animal behavior before quakes, none of the few scientific studies on the topic confirm any such trend. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/faq/myths.html

That said, here is a short National Geographic article with quotes from many points of view, which suggests some possible ways animals could sense quakes before us: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/11/1111_031111_earthquakeanimals.html

It could just be that people tend to remember (and talk about) their animals’ behavior more frequently after a traumatic event and that’s why the stories persist. However, numerous animals can sense forces that we humans can’t (like migrating birds that use internal magnetic compasses for direction), so we might not have tested the right things. In the end, I’d say the evidence available suggests that animals don’t sense quakes, but that we really need more controlled studies to say for certain.


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